News Analysis · Western Cape · Political competition · Coalitions
The Western Cape is no party’s property
Political authority must be earned at every election. The province’s history of negotiated power offers a reason to welcome real competition and legitimate coalitions, while respecting what voters actually decide.
A string of election victories gives a party experience, influence and a record to defend. It gives it no permanent claim on a province. The Western Cape belongs to the people who live in it, including those who support the government, those who oppose it and those still waiting for a convincing alternative.
That is the democratic argument worth carrying into this election. The DA has built substantial electoral strength in the province. Challengers have every right to contest that strength, and residents have every right to reconsider their loyalties. Political competition keeps the question of authority open.
TPR welcomes that competition. Where voters produce a council without a majority party, we should also welcome the possibility of a legitimate coalition. Shared power can give different political voices a place in government and require parties to persuade one another. Its democratic worth deserves a hearing before every negotiation is dismissed as a crisis.
A mandate can change
Cape Town’s municipal record shows how electoral strength can change. On the city’s proportional-representation ballot, the DA received 66.75% in 2016 and 58.74% in 2021. That is a decline of 8.01 percentage points on the same ballot type, while leaving the party with a clear majority of that vote. IEC’s 2016 party report; IEC’s 2021 results.
An eight-point reduction is a meaningful change in the party’s electoral cushion. These are Cape Town municipal results: one part of a provincial political story that is contested council by council. They establish historical change without telling us who will gain or lose authority in 2026.
This year's latest Ipsos poll still puts the DA firmly ahead of its competitors in the city, at 51%. Released on 30 October, it draws on interviews from 12 September to 13 October. The latest chart uses a registered-voter base, with those saying they would not vote excluded from the metro sample. Ipsos reports a maximum Cape Town margin of error of ±5.95 percentage points at 95% confidence. Ipsos release and methodology; Cape Town chart.
The party’s lead is clear in that survey; the question of a governing majority remains for the election. Ipsos cautions that its findings are not a prediction. A snapshot of sentiment has limits, particularly when the majority line sits close to the published figure. The public retains the power to decide.
Shared power has a Western Cape history
Coalitions are already part of that history. In its 4 November 2021 election update, the provincial government reported sixteen hung councils among the Western Cape’s thirty municipal councils. CoGTA’s historical account includes Cape Town among the hung councils after the 2006 elections. Negotiated government is familiar ground here. Western Cape government, 2021; CoGTA’s account.
The democratic principle is straightforward. When voters divide authority between parties, those parties must take the division seriously. Smaller parties and local movements represent political choices too. Their supporters remain part of the public after the count, and their elected representatives can contribute to a common programme.
That places a demanding responsibility on challengers. Opposition becomes more convincing when it offers a coherent account of how to govern together. A shared dislike of an incumbent cannot carry an administration indefinitely. Partners need enough common purpose to make decisions, enough respect to sustain disagreement and enough honesty to explain their compromises.
Equally, a majority returned to the DA would be a legitimate democratic outcome. Welcoming competition means accepting voters’ freedom to renew a mandate as well as change it. The same principle binds the ANC and every other party: authority must come from the electoral result and the lawful council arrangements that follow.
Power must justify itself
For residents, the eventual governing arrangement must make political authority useful: dependable services, fair access to opportunity and public money spent honestly. A coalition does not automatically deliver those things. Neither does a large majority. Both must answer for the decisions they make and the promises they leave unfulfilled.
A more competitive Western Cape is worth welcoming because it asks every party to earn its place. No incumbent is owed another term; no challenger is entitled to replace it. The public retains the authority to choose, to divide power and to demand better from whoever governs.