Bay coalition poll puts governing partnerships in focus before election day

Coalition preferences released by eNCA on 1 November 2026 show competing views about governing partnerships in Nelson Mandela Bay. The MarkData interviews were conducted between 10 August and 14 September, rather than this weekend.

In the newly published Bay findings, 31.4% of ANC respondents selected no other party, 29.7% preferred the EFF and 27% preferred the DA. Separately, 38.4% rejected the DA. Among DA respondents, 68.3% rejected the ANC as a partner.

Preferences are not agreements

These responses describe voters’ views, not commitments by party leaders or election results.

The published methodology records 994 Bay respondents and a reported full-metro margin of error of ±3.11 percentage points at 95% confidence. That margin should not be applied to the smaller party subgroups.

What the coalition record shows

The MISTRA Coalitions Barometer’s 2026 findings, published on 7 October, offer a broader record. Between the 2021 election and February 2026, 80 municipal councils were hung at some point: no single party held a majority of seats.

Coalition government did not always mean collapse. Of 70 administrations established after the 2021 election in hung councils, 23 were still in office in essentially their original form four years later.

MISTRA found administrations excluding the party with the most seats collapsed at about four times the rate of those including it, whether that party was the ANC or another party. This is an observed association, not proof that any particular future coalition must fail.

The researchers also said they could not find reliable evidence that coalition instability harmed audit outcomes. Political stability and sound financial administration therefore require separate scrutiny.

The rules and the public record

Parliament’s register identifies the Municipal Structures Amendment Bill, B23-2026, as a bill introduced on 18 August. Its proposed changes include provision for coalition agreements; they should not be presented as rules already in force.

At a 6 October parliamentary briefing, SALGA president Bheki Stofile said existing Municipal Structures Act provisions would apply while the proposed legislation was pending.

What parties can disclose now

In a statement dated 23 September, My Vote Counts said it had asked 20 parties to explain their coalition principles, non-negotiable policies, excluded partners and willingness to publish agreements.

The civil-society organisation’s position is that parties can disclose those principles before knowing the final electoral arithmetic. For residents, those commitments provide something concrete to compare with the partnerships and governing programme that follow the vote.